Things are bad at Newark Airport these days. Flight delay and cancellation numbers are up beyond even what is normal for the most delayed airport in the nation’s busiest airspace. And the worst part is that we knew months ago this would happen.
There are multiple contributing factors to Newark’s problems.
Being in busy airspace with conflicting runways at JFK, La Guardia, and Teterboro is part of that. So are limitations of the air traffic control staffing in the area.
In 2023 the FAA allowed airlines to reduce flights without losing slots in hopes of stabilizing the system and eventually growing back into those sacrificed operations. The agency also migrated control of Newark to “Philadelphia Area C” from the New York Terminal Radar Approach Control facility (N90). That migration has been beset by technical failures – radar scopes simply dropping offline – and staffing challenges since day one. But even with those challenges the airport was limping along.
And then construction started.
In November 2024 the FAA announced that one of Newark’s primary runways (4L-22R) would be closed for renovation. The work covers weekends March 1-April 15, plus September 1-December 31. It also includes a full closure from April 15-June 15. We’re in that 60 day full closure window now and things are worse than the FAA planned for. But arguably also exactly as bad at the FAA and airlines should have expected.
Newark’s regular operations limits airlines to 77 movements per hour, with 42 per half hour for some peak flexibility. FAA guidance targets a maximum of 42 arrivals in any hour and 23 departures in any half hour during the peak 6a-11:59p operating window. The airport can barely keep up with that rate, but it is where the FAA set the targets (effectively limits, but not entirely due to the way rules are applied).
For the construction period the FAA knew it needed to reduce operations. But the agency also sought to strike a balance between operational capabilities and airline demand. And in doing so implemented a program that it knew would see significant numbers of delays.
Airlines would be restricted to 35 hourly arrivals or departures in earlier hours (down from 42/46) and 31 later in the day. The airlines adjusted their schedules appropriately. Those numbers were based on the 2014 construction project of 4L-22R, the other major runway.
But the FAA chose to use “the median rates that EWR was able to sustain under the constraint of a runway closure” to set the limits. It knew going into this work that last time the airport could only support this number of operations half the time.
Even with the reduced flight schedules the Agency forecast 21% of arrivals experience delays averaging 38 minutes, while 44% of departures would experience delays averaging 39.9 minutes.
Again, the plan was to have flights be delayed on average.
The FAA determined that the mitigation measures will balance efficient and timely operations at EWR during the construction period and limit the impact on carrier’s scheduled operations for the convenience of the flying public. Although the potential for some delays may still occur in the evening hours, a more stringent hourly targeted limit would result in some airport capacity being under-utilized.
These numbers did not account for the ATC staffing and systems issues. Rather than 31-35 hourly arrivals the airport is handling rates in the 20s a lot these days. And there is little capacity to recover that. Seeing 25% of an already reduced operating schedule evaporate is bad news all around.
United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby announced last week that the carrier would drop 35 daily departures. I’ve not seen the cuts show up in schedule filings so the impact is difficult to mention. But given the level at which Newark is able to operate, that cut is not going to be enough to solve the delays.
Kirby also called for a return to more strict slot controls at Newark, hoping to improve operational reliability for the airport overall. Which is especially strange because Newark operates with de facto slot controls (IATA Level 3) despite being at Level 2 by policy. Indeed, Newark had fewer commercial flights scheduled in 2024 than it did in 2016, the last year it was under Level 3 slot controls. And the delay issue is no better now than then.
So unless the reimplementation of controls comes with a notable reduction in total capacity, we’re still facing down an airport that expects to operate with delays and cancellations, even without the ATC and construction issues.
Newark is a mess. It would be great to see coordinated actions to help reduce the delays and get things back on track. Alas, what we’re seeing now is more whack-a-mole than a coherent plan.
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