Beyond the Numbers: Thoughts from Day 1 Orders at Farnborough 2026

Day one at Farnborough delivered little in the way of surprises, and similarly little in the way of order announcements. It is hard to confirm much with manufacturer order books backlogged well into the 2030s. Still, the quiet first day offered a few interesting (and conflicting) bits to consider.

Boeing led the day with 148 aircraft committed, a mix of new orders and conversions of previously announced options. Airbus trails, but only by a bit, with 106 aircraft committed.

I don’t really buy in to the horse racing of scoring order counts between Boeing and Airbus at these shows, but there are other trends and factors to consider.

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Boeing’s early wins, for example, are all on its proven Dreamliner line, not the 777X. Whether that’s because of the program maturity or aircraft size is less clear, but airlines have both options and are pretty clear in their path. Both Philippine Airlines (15 firm + 5 options) and Riyadh Air (28 options exercised) stuck with the 787s for their next deliveries. (Ironically, the PR image from Boeing/Philippine Airlines is a 787-9, not a type the carrier ordered.)

Big Plans with Big Planes

Similarly, these initial orders lean heavily towards the larger end of each type. Boeing (and Airbus) will, of course, happily swap orders between variants within each family. Airlines often announce selection of the smaller type to save on the initial down payment and swap closer to assembly time. Today, however, both carriers outright focused on the 787-10 as their future “regional” lift.

SMBC – the lessor that delivered 80% of the Day 1 action with 100 each from Boeing and Airbus – similarly leans towards the larger end of the scale. It will take 60 of the 737 MAX 10 and 65 A321neo. The balance of its orders focus on the smaller variants from those families.

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Committing up front to the larger planes shows that airlines and lessors believe the general trend towards up-gauging of operations is expected to hold. Arguably this also reinforces the success of the hub-and-spoke model. This is counter to the guidance Airbus shared prior to the show opening.

As reported by The Royal Aeronautical Society, Airbus anticipates continued growth of smaller urban areas, leading to “direct connections between smaller city pairs rather than traffic funnelled through major hubs, enabled by efficient single-aisles that make thin routes pay.” This is the inverse of the pitch that the company used to launch the A380. But airlines are still ordering the A350-1000, with comparable capacity. They are ordering the A321neo more than the A320neo. They are ordering the MAX 10. And they are pressing Airbus to offer the A220-500, a stretch of that aircraft family certain to emerge…eventually.

Yes, larger planes can be used for point-to-point services. But most airline growth lately has also been in the hub-and-spoke space. Or maybe hublets, like WestJet in Halifax for the summer with nine transatlantic destinations. Air Asia is consolidating operations into more of a hub-and-spoke model, while keeping some point-to-point flying. Upstarts like Breeze continue to grow out from their bases, even if much of the traffic is point-to-point. Even JetBlue is finally formally giving the hub idea a try in Fort Lauderdale, after toying with it to mixed success at JFK.

Yes, point-to-point flying will continue to grow. And mega-hubs cannot grow quickly; there simply is not space in most cases (DFW the exception, not the rule). But hubs are far from gone, and airlines will continue to benefit from flowing passengers through connections.

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Delayed Gratification

Also of note: Only one of the announcements included any mention of delivery timing. While the widebodies have some wiggle room for buildout, single-aisle options face a long horizon. SMBC indicated its Airbus order will ensure “a continuous delivery pipeline of the latest technology A320neo family aircraft into the mid-2030s.” Ordering now for delivery a decade hence tells quite a story.

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Maybe things will change over the next couple days and these trends will shift. But the past few major air shows have seen comparable order numbers and types, so I’m not betting on a major change this week.