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China blinks, US to back down on flight ban

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An Air China Boeing 777-300ER departing Beijing. Photo by Alan Wilson via CC BY-SA/Flickr https://www.flickr.com/photos/ajw1970/49070838773/
An Air China Boeing 777-300ER departing Beijing. Photo by Alan Wilson via CC BY-SA/Flickr

After months of quiet negotiations the US Department of Transportation went public yesterday, announcing it would suspend the rights of Chinese airlines to fly to the USA. The move matched limits placed on US carriers by China’s regulatory body, the CAAC, months ago. Just hours after that announcement the CAAC issued updated guidance, relaxing the rules such that US carriers can resume service next week. It is a small win, but likely not enough to placate Delta Air Lines and United Airlines.

China’s rules will still limit each carrier to a single weekly flight; the US carriers indicated they are ready to operate multiple daily frequencies should the CAAC see fit to allowing that volume.

All inbound passengers to China will be tested for COVID-19. If an airline delivers more than 5 infected travelers on a single flight it will have its traffic rights suspended for a week. If it delivers 10 or more the suspension increases to four weeks. But there’s also a potential up-side. If all passengers test negative for three consecutive weeks the airline will be permitted to increase operations to a pair of weekly flights, though still only to a single destination. And the Chinese government will choose whether to approve the route or not in part based on efforts to not have any single gateway become too concentrated with service.

The US airlines also face another challenge. Operating a single weekly flight across the oceans is rarely a cost-effective venture. Even with contract staffing for the ground handling the crew implications are significant. The trip is too far for a single crew to perform the round trip under normal timings. If the plane sits on the ground for a full day the same crew can bring it back, but that’s less than ideal from an aircraft utilization perspective. And a crew left in China awaiting a return a week later would likely be subject to at least some quarantine restrictions during the time on the ground. Even with two flights per week the logistics of the long stop in China are far from ideal.

Updated 5 June 2020 with additional details below:

The revised US policy now allows for two weekly flights in total from Chinese carriers to the US, matching the 2 weekly flights being granted to Delta and United:

We therefore conclude that the public interest now requires the modification, effective immediately, of Order 2020-6-1 to permit the Chinese carriers currently providing scheduled passenger air services between the United States and China, in accordance with the schedules that were filed pursuant to Order 2020-5-4, to operate, in the aggregate, a total of two weekly round-trip scheduled passenger flights to and from the United States. CAAC may communicate to the Department by letter which carrier(s) it selects to operate each or both of these two services. This selection may be modified with 30 days’ written notice to the Department in advance of the proposed operations.

Should the US carriers be permitted to increase to 2x weekly in a few weeks, presumably this would also see the DOT further relax its stance.

More on COVID-19 and the airlines affected

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About Seth Miller

Seth Miller has over a decade of experience covering the airline industry. With a strong focus on passenger experience, Seth also has deep knowledge of inflight connectivity and loyalty programs. He is widely respected as an unbiased commentator on the aviation industry.

He is frequently consulted on innovations in passenger experience by airlines and technology providers.

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Reader Interactions

Comments

  1. isaac says

    China didnt blink, The Us did, it should hav etold China if you only let 1 flight per week then your carriers will Only be allowed 1 flight per week

    Reply

    • Christopher Lin says

      Absolutely! The U.S.-China air service agreement has always been based on reciprocal flights such that U.S & Chinese carriers were granted equal number of flights which each government would divide amongst its carriers as they deemed fit. U.S. carriers are awarded flights by the U.S. Department of Transportation via route case proceedings decided by “public benefit” of carrier proposals.

      Reply

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